Ledger / Prediction #2463 · narrative · 6H

Will "put" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 11% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

90 of 2791 launches in the last hour referenced "put" (10 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 0.12×.

Made2026-10-12 16:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 22:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 16:30 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.43355576368442467,
      "momentum": -2.1543326956053166,
      "diversity": -0.7666666666666666
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.11494352670257103
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "put",
    "rank60": 8,
    "share15": 0.0037593984962406013,
    "share60": 0.03241404011461318,
    "total15": 664,
    "total60": 2791,
    "momentum": 0.11598055913263823,
    "diversity": 0.1111111111111111,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 90,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 10
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 319,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9996163888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999360648148148
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.11494352670257103
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 22:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.013

Log loss0.122

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.001698719893223321,
  "shareRatio": 0.18511283669012377,
  "totalAfter": 16483,
  "shareBefore": 0.009304029304029304,
  "totalBefore": 13650,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 28,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 127
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 11% that "put" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.93% → 0.17% (-82%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "put" (6H). momentum contributed -2.15 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash86b99182c1c09631cc811e5295cf16b34fe463788c6e9db5419c3cc62b44daa4

Previous hashff6cfa3ce23723b12cee8f8ab5b01a1074d482b1b3f30df6970cb33df96e3426