Ledger / Prediction #2470 · token · 6H

Will $NAPPOD still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 11% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 16m ago. X link, website. No hot term.

Made2026-10-12 16:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 22:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 16:30 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0.2,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.11461549863791237
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "4dvaSomg8SJT2Ha1q6tE2JqLtJQxuRgcPs8Znt1UAivE",
    "name": "Nap Pod Narwhal",
    "symbol": "NAPPOD",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 16,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 104,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3049.699871891307,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 1
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 833,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.11461549863791237
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 22:30 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.013

Log loss0.122

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-12T16:16:55.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3044.2707970109664,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 3049.699871891307,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3049.699871891307,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6099.399743782614
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 11% that $NAPPOD would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,044, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $NAPPOD (6H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashf01ac1fdcfda69772112c1e9f91e6e986675ac303e06be88160dd1ba610526be

Previous hash11673efe0a7559ebb8c06e7ef530dbf36de2eb26b8e3a58c455d04ea261d15d5