Ledger / Prediction #2476 · narrative · 1H

Will "playful" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 30% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

9 of 2991 launches in the last hour referenced "playful" (5 distinct creators, rank #147). Last 15m momentum 0.66×.

Made2026-10-12 17:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 18:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 16:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.08816799973531786,
      "momentum": -0.4088017812072039,
      "diversity": -0.23333333333333328
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.29860132737721795
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "playful",
    "rank60": 147,
    "share15": 0.002109704641350211,
    "share60": 0.0031751336898395723,
    "total15": 710,
    "total60": 2991,
    "momentum": 0.6644459249389295,
    "diversity": 0.5555555555555556,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 9,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 350,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9977152777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9977152777777778
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.29860132737721795
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 18:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.089

Log loss0.355

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.002404809619238477,
  "shareRatio": 0.8218201754385964,
  "totalAfter": 2495,
  "shareBefore": 0.003003003003003003,
  "totalBefore": 2997,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 6,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 9
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 30% that "playful" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.30% → 0.24% (-20%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "playful" (1H). momentum contributed -0.41 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash0625cce5a40c81146e4c7e8f73bb401e8bb4d558708c89ad8ab8ee86540ce0bb

Previous hash2bdcc890bcde79b04c5838aff6f7492e5932a1a0acd9055048a42863774ce3f2