Ledger / Prediction #2479 · narrative · 6H

Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 43% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

163 of 2991 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (86 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 0.81×.

Made2026-10-12 17:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 23:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 16:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.5226468432558993,
      "momentum": -0.20980053521459374,
      "diversity": -0.26687116564417185
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.43344299833679273
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "inu",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.04430379746835443,
    "share60": 0.05464572192513369,
    "total15": 710,
    "total60": 2991,
    "momentum": 0.8107459451089691,
    "diversity": 0.5276073619631901,
    "launches15": 31,
    "launches60": 163,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 86
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 350,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9977152777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.999619212962963
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.43344299833679273
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 23:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.188

Log loss0.568

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.01726844583987441,
  "shareRatio": 0.41694733336378353,
  "totalAfter": 15925,
  "shareBefore": 0.041457545548298384,
  "totalBefore": 14545,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 275,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 603
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 43% that "inu" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 4.15% → 1.73% (-58%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "inu" (6H). diversity contributed -0.27 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash1009a7cd5438d97c55cb999243878580b1191f02d1c7524813950aef21d74484

Previous hashac28e065d9d286e9ca08a5d219cd149bdc4ae93568e90242e64f84d7458fde5a