Will "intelligence" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 49% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

88 of 2996 launches in the last hour referenced "intelligence" (76 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 0.73×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.43018483530661594,
      "momentum": -0.3200940267394576,
      "diversity": 0.13636363636363638
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4866168086884126
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "intelligence",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.02144082332761578,
    "share60": 0.02952952952952953,
    "total15": 582,
    "total60": 2996,
    "momentum": 0.7260807628572259,
    "diversity": 0.8636363636363636,
    "launches15": 12,
    "launches60": 88,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 76
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 398,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9954838888888888,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9954838888888888
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4866168086884126
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.004327301337529505,
  "shareRatio": 0.15365320998598125,
  "totalAfter": 2542,
  "shareBefore": 0.02927478376580173,
  "totalBefore": 3006,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 11,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 88
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity