Will "grok" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 50% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

71 of 2996 launches in the last hour referenced "grok" (70 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 0.68×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3979862946910822,
      "momentum": -0.3812257701272961,
      "diversity": 0.2830985915492958
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4999647790283287
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "grok",
    "rank60": 8,
    "share15": 0.016295025728987993,
    "share60": 0.02385719052385719,
    "total15": 582,
    "total60": 2996,
    "momentum": 0.6830236658710072,
    "diversity": 0.9859154929577465,
    "launches15": 9,
    "launches60": 71,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 70
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 398,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9954838888888888,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9954838888888888
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4999647790283287
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0055074744295830055,
  "shareRatio": 0.23979991695288588,
  "totalAfter": 2542,
  "shareBefore": 0.023619427811044577,
  "totalBefore": 3006,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 14,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 71
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity