Ledger / Prediction #2492 · narrative · 1H

Will "wind" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 22% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 2996 launches in the last hour referenced "wind" (3 distinct creators, rank #445). Last 15m momentum 0.47×.

Made2026-10-12 17:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 18:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 17:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": -0.7607153918321998,
      "diversity": -0.18000000000000002
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.22431148597664605
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "wind",
    "rank60": 445,
    "share15": 0.0008576329331046312,
    "share60": 0.0018351685018351686,
    "total15": 582,
    "total60": 2996,
    "momentum": 0.46733198191174175,
    "diversity": 0.6,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 398,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9954838888888888,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9954838888888888
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.22431148597664605
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 18:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.050

Log loss0.254

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0003933910306845004,
  "shareRatio": 0.3224895434883638,
  "totalAfter": 2542,
  "shareBefore": 0.00166333998669328,
  "totalBefore": 3006,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 5
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 22% that "wind" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.17% → 0.04% (-76%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "wind" (1H). momentum contributed -0.76 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash20ab2d79da8daef23ad629cd23a8c2f556b952c34af130a18ef02a4a1e5530f5

Previous hash8a281d276184ccd0771a45f3667b8f77e5a5f492c35488b24b5d33a8e2373750