Ledger / Prediction #2493 · narrative · 6H

Will "avgo" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

115 of 2996 launches in the last hour referenced "avgo" (30 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 0.02×.

Made2026-10-12 17:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 23:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 17:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.47032413238937243,
      "momentum": -3.805237829555623,
      "diversity": -0.5869565217391304
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.05
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "avgo",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.0008576329331046312,
    "share60": 0.03853853853853854,
    "total15": 582,
    "total60": 2996,
    "momentum": 0.022253903900559133,
    "diversity": 0.2608695652173913,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 115,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 30
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 398,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9954838888888888,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9992473148148148
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.05
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 23:34 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.003

Log loss0.051

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00006439979392065946,
  "shareRatio": 0.012389053409080456,
  "totalAfter": 15528,
  "shareBefore": 0.007763451022750287,
  "totalBefore": 14813,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 115
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 5% that "avgo" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.78% → 0.01% (-99%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "avgo" (6H). momentum contributed -3.81 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashffc4c0a3260ad37ef3d89ac0215728b3ce2cd8a619b145648a578bb366f2c9c3

Previous hash20ab2d79da8daef23ad629cd23a8c2f556b952c34af130a18ef02a4a1e5530f5