Ledger / Prediction #2495 · narrative · 6H

Will "bot" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 33% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

78 of 2996 launches in the last hour referenced "bot" (75 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 0.29×.

Made2026-10-12 17:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 23:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 17:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.41209063713832367,
      "momentum": -1.2218413470459177,
      "diversity": 0.2538461538461539
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.33422592734940354
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "bot",
    "rank60": 7,
    "share15": 0.007718696397941681,
    "share60": 0.02619285952619286,
    "total15": 582,
    "total60": 2996,
    "momentum": 0.294687045918869,
    "diversity": 0.9615384615384616,
    "launches15": 4,
    "launches60": 78,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 75
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 398,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9954838888888888,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9992473148148148
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.33422592734940354
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 23:34 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.112

Log loss0.407

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.006697578567748583,
  "shareRatio": 0.5680257450493783,
  "totalAfter": 15528,
  "shareBefore": 0.011813947208533045,
  "totalBefore": 14813,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 104,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 175
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 33% that "bot" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 1.18% → 0.67% (-43%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "bot" (6H). momentum contributed -1.22 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashda9d159a5c2d8cfd41519e71994be0832dbf8791f5f87dfc75886e9a3f0be4b1

Previous hashc7d0d4807280c23dc0d176b88052919cd3bdaf2ca70a784a09406f43cd4bb899