Will "open" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 47% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

14 of 2996 launches in the last hour referenced "open" (14 distinct creators, rank #75). Last 15m momentum 0.89×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.1544429125771737,
      "momentum": -0.12067803658620287,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.466769665929207
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "open",
    "rank60": 75,
    "share15": 0.004288164665523156,
    "share60": 0.004838171504838172,
    "total15": 582,
    "total60": 2996,
    "momentum": 0.8863192760395102,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 14,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 14
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 398,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9954838888888888,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998118287037037
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.466769665929207
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.005027068832173241,
  "shareRatio": 1.2558792131512644,
  "totalAfter": 43962,
  "shareBefore": 0.004001347822424396,
  "totalBefore": 47484,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 221,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 190
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity