Ledger / Prediction #2504 · token · 6H

Will $BUMOAI still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 6% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 27m ago. No social links. No hot term.

Made2026-10-12 17:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 23:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 17:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0.2,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.0604014851376858
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "993Conrk88AFce8rcZ8CSSHeC7NxndeSVhTa1Uncpump",
    "name": "Bumo AI",
    "symbol": "BUMOAI",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 27,
    "hasTwitter": false,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 188,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3014.52298792697,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 1
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 950,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.0604014851376858
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 23:31 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.004

Log loss0.062

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-12T17:03:36.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3014.52298792697,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 3186.193649696106,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3014.52298792697,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6029.04597585394
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 6% that $BUMOAI would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,015, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $BUMOAI (6H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashd0c2c5566cae7b464ec864ee876e1c975022d849c26bbbace1dca6f10f570951

Previous hashc619d650a7e311f72a7a4348a5ebf61fc02783c2261a63f11f05cf4437ada281