Ledger / Prediction #2508 · narrative · 1H

Will "making" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 61% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

8 of 2488 launches in the last hour referenced "making" (7 distinct creators, rank #208). Last 15m momentum 1.68×.

Made2026-10-12 18:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 19:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 17:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.07050054438686033,
      "momentum": 0.5188741501993324,
      "diversity": 0.15
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6081100229013796
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "making",
    "rank60": 208,
    "share15": 0.005737704918032787,
    "share60": 0.0034150261149055844,
    "total15": 609,
    "total60": 2488,
    "momentum": 1.6801350048216008,
    "diversity": 0.875,
    "launches15": 3,
    "launches60": 8,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 7
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 431,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9924369444444444,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9924369444444444
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6081100229013796
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 19:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.370

Log loss0.937

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0025188916876574307,
  "shareRatio": 0.7922132881929751,
  "totalAfter": 2779,
  "shareBefore": 0.0032064128256513026,
  "totalBefore": 2495,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 7,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 8
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 61% that "making" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.32% → 0.25% (-21%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "making" (1H). momentum contributed +0.52 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash9ee34fda75f88a5396de2f1fa224a12263dc463bdf6af12cb0c9549b28e8b0e5

Previous hash0f6192f49cb340ef59129560327228bad6c7a5f4351660d9d033d7d461335293