GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #2510 · narrative · 6H

Will "usepaid" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 60% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

55 of 2488 launches in the last hour referenced "usepaid" (29 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 2.54×.

Made2026-10-12 18:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 00:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 17:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.35968429091975557,
      "momentum": 0.9307536484851603,
      "diversity": -0.26727272727272733
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6025773340961079
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "usepaid",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.056557377049180325,
    "share60": 0.022298111691442347,
    "total15": 609,
    "total60": 2488,
    "momentum": 2.536420026583961,
    "diversity": 0.5272727272727272,
    "launches15": 34,
    "launches60": 55,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 29
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 431,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9924369444444444,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9987394907407408
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6025773340961079
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 00:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.158
Log loss0.507
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.009823443515199787,
  "shareRatio": 1.3769028571604969,
  "totalAfter": 15066,
  "shareBefore": 0.007125258040886995,
  "totalBefore": 15017,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 148,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 107
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 60% that "usepaid" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.71% → 0.98% (+38%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "usepaid" (6H). momentum contributed +0.93 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash9ed900f06c257962f139c352f5448fed59fccdfb89f0932e39bcf54cd711f855
Previous hash4d8eb9052f50115dc0616eec791a3a9f923769819521e65ef68c06a09f91b2af