Ledger / Prediction #2512 · narrative · 6H

Will "claudio" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 26% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

8 of 2488 launches in the last hour referenced "claudio" (8 distinct creators, rank #193). Last 15m momentum 0.24×.

Made2026-10-12 18:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 00:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 17:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.07050054438686033,
      "momentum": -1.4270359988559809,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.2612320413757727
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "claudio",
    "rank60": 193,
    "share15": 0.000819672131147541,
    "share60": 0.0034150261149055844,
    "total15": 609,
    "total60": 2488,
    "momentum": 0.24001928640308584,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 8,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 8
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 431,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9924369444444444,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9987394907407408
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.2612320413757727
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 00:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.068

Log loss0.303

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00013274923669188903,
  "shareRatio": 0.21668431729578896,
  "totalAfter": 15066,
  "shareBefore": 0.0007325031630818406,
  "totalBefore": 15017,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 2,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 11
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 26% that "claudio" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.07% → 0.01% (-82%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "claudio" (6H). momentum contributed -1.43 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash7785295f6255eeb141d0a5c7fb53c6df151b460f524cbbaa0811e91d679b9aa3

Previous hash16b7925aff3a46c1fd3ecd4c91cdd9ee801e27935e18810b6ab493623088ef84