Will "blockchain" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 46% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

10 of 2488 launches in the last hour referenced "blockchain" (9 distinct creators, rank #138). Last 15m momentum 0.97×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.1039720770839918,
      "momentum": -0.028907180089087582,
      "diversity": 0.18000000000000002
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4569896713627168
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "blockchain",
    "rank60": 138,
    "share15": 0.004098360655737705,
    "share60": 0.004218561671353958,
    "total15": 609,
    "total60": 2488,
    "momentum": 0.9715066354410616,
    "diversity": 0.9,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 10,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 9
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 431,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9924369444444444,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996848726851851
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4569896713627168
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.002614765466906164,
  "shareRatio": 1.2183447552269167,
  "totalAfter": 43981,
  "shareBefore": 0.0021449750804365653,
  "totalBefore": 47553,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 115,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 102
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity