Ledger / Prediction #2517 · token · 1H

Will $Patrikck j still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 2% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 11m ago. No social links. No hot term. Creator launched 15 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-12 18:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 19:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 17:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.02310254327777607
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "763B4UJ8vLBHfgAJe3EBbVyqXmaHZ3jZVmcAjapQpump",
    "name": "Patrikck jane ",
    "symbol": "Patrikck j",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 11,
    "hasTwitter": false,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 14,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 329.90446948251986,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 15
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 747,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.02310254327777607
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 19:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.001

Log loss0.023

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-12T18:59:53.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 2.2610363947284027,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 3023.12541210564,
  "tradedInFinal15m": true,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 329.90446948251986,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 5000
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 2% that $Patrikck j would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $2, still trading). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $Patrikck j (1H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashf8ac266d709e9268830b7242ce0c479ca5b5e7140710b828b06fb57be6db9a29

Previous hashf722d1c25c913e9ccf7f1a0823f3c2d915770c01ae98d4b975248a1b73dc0164