Will "wearing" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 25% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

7 of 2537 launches in the last hour referenced "wearing" (4 distinct creators, rank #258). Last 15m momentum 0.23×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.050470835493181924,
      "momentum": -1.461963086970314,
      "diversity": -0.21428571428571433
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.24733268524934587
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "wearing",
    "rank60": 258,
    "share15": 0.0006849315068493151,
    "share60": 0.002955082742316785,
    "total15": 729,
    "total60": 2537,
    "momentum": 0.23178082191780822,
    "diversity": 0.5714285714285714,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 7,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 386,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9982586111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999274421296296
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.24733268524934587
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00036582298740197086,
  "shareRatio": 0.433733286982123,
  "totalAfter": 43737,
  "shareBefore": 0.0008593045920399052,
  "totalBefore": 47713,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 16,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 41
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity