Ledger / Prediction #2540 · narrative · 1H

Will "hope" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 7% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

28 of 2771 launches in the last hour referenced "hope" (22 distinct creators, rank #25). Last 15m momentum 0.08×.

Made2026-10-12 19:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 20:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 18:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.2584149896611655,
      "momentum": -2.5849772243205287,
      "diversity": 0.04285714285714284
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.07019452429920815
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "hope",
    "rank60": 25,
    "share15": 0.0007751937984496124,
    "share60": 0.010281385281385282,
    "total15": 644,
    "total60": 2771,
    "momentum": 0.07539779681762546,
    "diversity": 0.7857142857142857,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 28,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 22
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 436,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9957258333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9957258333333333
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.07019452429920815
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 20:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.005

Log loss0.073

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0006942034015966678,
  "shareRatio": 0.08461472905024531,
  "totalAfter": 2881,
  "shareBefore": 0.010075566750629723,
  "totalBefore": 2779,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 2,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 28
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 7% that "hope" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 1.01% → 0.07% (-93%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "hope" (1H). momentum contributed -2.58 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash64895f4737049b9ae5f319e075fe1df6deb73136050f75bd66453abc9d48fc3b

Previous hash0e6d8d425e3d4d0e5b3be19586aaf4add9f76511b35c6602c7f20098ec9e499b