GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #2547 · narrative · 24H

Will "wif" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 36% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

40 of 2771 launches in the last hour referenced "wif" (20 distinct creators, rank #12). Last 15m momentum 0.58×.

Made2026-10-12 19:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 19:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 18:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3119162312519754,
      "momentum": -0.5384798383600469,
      "diversity": -0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3627884542726668
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "wif",
    "rank60": 12,
    "share15": 0.008527131782945736,
    "share60": 0.01461038961038961,
    "total15": 644,
    "total60": 2771,
    "momentum": 0.583634797588286,
    "diversity": 0.5,
    "launches15": 5,
    "launches60": 40,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 20
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 436,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9957258333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998219097222222
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3627884542726668
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 19:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.406
Log loss1.014
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.009905779907392475,
  "shareRatio": 1.9311934463273666,
  "totalAfter": 43409,
  "shareBefore": 0.005124893231391012,
  "totalBefore": 48001,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 430,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 246
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 36% that "wif" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.51% → 0.99% (+93%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "wif" (24H). momentum contributed -0.54 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashe936fbe562134922d959d6e17067be51c6b637d15d192b625102eaee7790bc68
Previous hash0bc1ba822882786d37545beca8c9946644beade2a155c09cb5b5d869d11677d4