Ledger / Prediction #2548 · narrative · 24H

Will "goat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 45% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 2771 launches in the last hour referenced "goat" (4 distinct creators, rank #395). Last 15m momentum 1.17×.

Made2026-10-12 19:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 19:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 18:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": 0.15879105938376054,
      "diversity": 0.06000000000000005
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.45249262424359765
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "goat",
    "rank60": 395,
    "share15": 0.002325581395348837,
    "share60": 0.001984126984126984,
    "total15": 644,
    "total60": 2771,
    "momentum": 1.172093023255814,
    "diversity": 0.8,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 436,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9957258333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998219097222222
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.45249262424359765
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 19:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.300

Log loss0.793

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0029026238798405862,
  "shareRatio": 1.6955325193887736,
  "totalAfter": 43409,
  "shareBefore": 0.0017082977437970041,
  "totalBefore": 48001,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 126,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 82
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 45% that "goat" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.17% → 0.29% (+70%). INCORRECT.

— momentum was right but too weak on "goat" (24H). momentum contributed +0.16 toward yes, the true outcome, but could not overcome the prior.

— The prior was wrong on "goat" (24H). Every active signal pointed the right way; the base assumption outweighed them.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash6bad51457d62587ab90848a6e3a06498d55ae174048b270df3106a49530e0832

Previous hashe936fbe562134922d959d6e17067be51c6b637d15d192b625102eaee7790bc68