Will "goonbot" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 8% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

55 of 2798 launches in the last hour referenced "goonbot" (30 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.10×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.35968429091975557,
      "momentum": -2.308533780990457,
      "diversity": -0.24545454545454548
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.0762584542392026
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "goonbot",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.0019710906701708277,
    "share60": 0.01982851018220793,
    "total15": 760,
    "total60": 2798,
    "momentum": 0.09940689704158824,
    "diversity": 0.5454545454545454,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 55,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 30
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 391,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9932577777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9932577777777778
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.0762584542392026
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.008162875001086645,
  "totalAfter": 3108,
  "shareBefore": 0.01953125,
  "totalBefore": 2816,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 55
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity