Ledger / Prediction #2562 · narrative · 24H
Will "microcap" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 62% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
55 of 2798 launches in the last hour referenced "microcap" (38 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 3.68×.
Made2026-10-12 19:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 19:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 19:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.35968429091975557,
"momentum": 1.3023841316537679,
"diversity": -0.0709090909090909
},
"rawProbability": 0.6214199753406822
},
"features": {
"term": "microcap",
"rank60": 5,
"share15": 0.07293035479632064,
"share60": 0.01982851018220793,
"total15": 760,
"total60": 2798,
"momentum": 3.6780551905387653,
"diversity": 0.6909090909090909,
"launches15": 55,
"launches60": 55,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 38
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 391,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9932577777777778,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997190740740741
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6214199753406822
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-13 19:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.386
Log loss0.971
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.00016232636875913086,
"shareRatio": 0.14095759813989597,
"totalAfter": 43123,
"shareBefore": 0.0012234825705576178,
"totalBefore": 48223,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 7,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 59
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 62% that "microcap" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.12% → 0.02% (-87%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "microcap" (24H). momentum contributed +1.30 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
0a554f7d49fd28f341440109c9f8c6992d8782dfa03dbbcd744ca70f38b3f37cPrevious hash
abebcce889c01ed1bbc1757a6b5bd007dde6ab26680151adc79bd24c95a9e18c