Ledger / Prediction #2565 · token · 1H

Will $Lucky still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 6% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 27m ago. X link, website. Rides hot term "justice". Creator launched 13 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-12 19:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 20:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 19:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.0604014851376858
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "6H5ZztR5WTpcaTS8zi6JwW7fdbMsqR3A24KLXQrcpump",
    "name": "Justice For Lucky",
    "symbol": "Lucky",
    "hotTerms": [
      "justice",
      "lucky"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 27,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 0,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 5115.737822609524,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 13
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 845,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.0604014851376858
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 20:30 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.004

Log loss0.062

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-12T19:08:14.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3003.066177958385,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 6127.577496237023,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 5115.737822609524,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 10231.475645219049
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 6% that $Lucky would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,003, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $Lucky (1H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash2ffc934add5bcc4a4fb5143cc14ccbbe2efff283d85159fb4134cfea6dc87e4a

Previous hash4215e36b953229d6ba1dc99c4ea6f60ca60dbe91d742e0ec10841baf71ea10c8