Ledger / Prediction #2572 · narrative · 1H

Will "trilly" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 6% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

24 of 2872 launches in the last hour referenced "trilly" (15 distinct creators, rank #38). Last 15m momentum 0.08×.

Made2026-10-12 20:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 21:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 20:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.23529238768707678,
      "momentum": -2.540749273964429,
      "diversity": -0.15
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.05977920453334687
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "trilly",
    "rank60": 38,
    "share15": 0.0006720430107526882,
    "share60": 0.008527671423599026,
    "total15": 743,
    "total60": 2872,
    "momentum": 0.07880732938336625,
    "diversity": 0.625,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 24,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 15
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 356,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9993741666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9993741666666667
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.05977920453334687
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 21:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.004

Log loss0.062

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.0190900118567388,
  "totalAfter": 3080,
  "shareBefore": 0.008330440819160014,
  "totalBefore": 2881,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 24
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 6% that "trilly" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.83% → 0.00% (-100%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "trilly" (1H). momentum contributed -2.54 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashbeba8ccccaf56535edbc55d545196d6e6d5460b2c2bc560ba397ac21fcac4b45

Previous hashc2f3312c47306fa6d96d4fc16a9e8b1294bcd0c43d41eeb9fd9cf8847a43914a