Ledger / Prediction #2573 · narrative · 6H
Will "bullshit" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 69% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
93 of 2872 launches in the last hour referenced "bullshit" (55 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 3.86×.
Made2026-10-12 20:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 02:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 20:00 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.43847423710787337,
"momentum": 1.3510710241461978,
"diversity": -0.19032258064516125
},
"rawProbability": 0.6941208255701994
},
"features": {
"term": "bullshit",
"rank60": 1,
"share15": 0.1256720430107527,
"share60": 0.03254437869822485,
"total15": 743,
"total60": 2872,
"momentum": 3.8615591397849465,
"diversity": 0.5913978494623656,
"launches15": 93,
"launches60": 93,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 55
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 356,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9993741666666667,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998956944444445
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6941208255701994
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-13 02:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.482
Log loss1.184
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0005651998385143318,
"shareRatio": 0.10325881887372423,
"totalAfter": 12385,
"shareBefore": 0.005834092980856883,
"totalBefore": 16455,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 7,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 96
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 69% that "bullshit" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.58% → 0.06% (-90%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "bullshit" (6H). momentum contributed +1.35 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
7672eca7043e4f79c3b42bace0436a0f5725a35cb1cd3d5388a6e7d8f7951a40Previous hash
beba8ccccaf56535edbc55d545196d6e6d5460b2c2bc560ba397ac21fcac4b45