GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #2577 · narrative · 24H

Will "bullshit" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 62% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

93 of 2872 launches in the last hour referenced "bullshit" (55 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 3.86×.

Made2026-10-12 20:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 20:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 20:00 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.43847423710787337,
      "momentum": 1.3510710241461978,
      "diversity": -0.19032258064516125
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6223679903844013
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "bullshit",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.1256720430107527,
    "share60": 0.03254437869822485,
    "total15": 743,
    "total60": 2872,
    "momentum": 3.8615591397849465,
    "diversity": 0.5913978494623656,
    "launches15": 93,
    "launches60": 93,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 55
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 356,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9993741666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999739236111111
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6223679903844013
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 20:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.387
Log loss0.974
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.0002796029637914162,
  "shareRatio": 0.13630608292240873,
  "totalAfter": 42918,
  "shareBefore": 0.0021264296626615467,
  "totalBefore": 48438,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 12,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 103
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 62% that "bullshit" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.21% → 0.03% (-87%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "bullshit" (24H). momentum contributed +1.35 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashaebdb4d561a9af309fc47e2de02b4b0bf18fabdfef473f15f51ca1d39ce05b77
Previous hash8eef922f13b03782359b85a4d280e8cb48afe183b26dd4ba4e63b0e48aeea877