Will "plasma" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 19% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

51 of 2872 launches in the last hour referenced "plasma" (16 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.11×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.34835815804353376,
      "momentum": -2.1850456754153282,
      "diversity": -0.5235294117647059
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.1854110369197968
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "plasma",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.0020161290322580645,
    "share60": 0.017925513400626522,
    "total15": 743,
    "total60": 2872,
    "momentum": 0.11247259630441592,
    "diversity": 0.3137254901960784,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 51,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 16
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 356,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9993741666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999739236111111
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.1854110369197968
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00004660049396523603,
  "shareRatio": 0.05478710517463807,
  "totalAfter": 42918,
  "shareBefore": 0.0010528923572401833,
  "totalBefore": 48438,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 2,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 51
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity