GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #2579 · narrative · 24H

Will "finance" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 23% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

45 of 2872 launches in the last hour referenced "finance" (30 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 0.13×.

Made2026-10-12 20:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 20:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 20:00 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3295836866004329,
      "momentum": -2.0611761937025426,
      "diversity": -0.10000000000000005
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.22867707781842825
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "finance",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.0020161290322580645,
    "share60": 0.01583710407239819,
    "total15": 743,
    "total60": 2872,
    "momentum": 0.12730414746543778,
    "diversity": 0.6666666666666666,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 45,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 30
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 356,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9993741666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999739236111111
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.22867707781842825
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 20:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.052
Log loss0.260
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.0008621091383568666,
  "shareRatio": 0.15762770483205923,
  "totalAfter": 42918,
  "shareBefore": 0.005532846112556258,
  "totalBefore": 48438,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 37,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 268
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 23% that "finance" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.55% → 0.09% (-84%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "finance" (24H). momentum contributed -2.06 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashb6022daf3d2f1da1f8052ab14aa96e14b5de5dbb4dfbb6754789bd3c2c0a5130
Previous hashf573cba9c0a39fe57b15da995b4618d0b68ad027b5ad71b0dfe2145d7bb0e68f