Ledger / Prediction #2582 · token · 6H

Will $Mike still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 7% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 30m ago. X link. No hot term.

Made2026-10-12 20:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 02:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 20:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.07280096915005271
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "5gCBK3vT6ZjHbpT4GGfRGm3GhU6SViCheUeBVQ4gpump",
    "name": "Mike Dyson",
    "symbol": "Mike",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 30,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 0,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 6066.389628998888,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 2
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 953,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.07280096915005271
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 02:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeSUSTAINED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.860

Log loss2.620

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": true,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-13T00:51:19.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3238.3145599320187,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 53890.2701412444,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 6066.389628998888,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 12132.779257997776
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 7% that $Mike would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: SUSTAINED (market cap $3,238, graduated). INCORRECT.

— twitter was right but too weak on $Mike (6H). twitter contributed +0.40 toward yes, the true outcome, but could not overcome the prior.

— The prior was wrong on $Mike (6H). Every active signal pointed the right way; the base assumption outweighed them.

— Overconfident: 93% and wrong on $Mike. Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

3 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash299a6c1036d6473380f5367343746299db13470a8110777a787dbce34b467231

Previous hasha43d008f328db36edfaa46a80a96da89a9f7718e0d517dc714641455aba78205