GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #260 · narrative · 6H

Will "robinhood" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 57% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

10 of 2436 launches in the last hour referenced "robinhood" (10 distinct creators, rank #156). Last 15m momentum 1.53×.

Made2026-10-09 17:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-09 23:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 17:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.1039720770839918,
      "momentum": 0.42766288708849026,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5700718919366732
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "robinhood",
    "rank60": 156,
    "share15": 0.006607929515418502,
    "share60": 0.004308576118178088,
    "total15": 680,
    "total60": 2436,
    "momentum": 1.5336689741976086,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 4,
    "launches60": 10,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 10
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 399,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9971438888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9995239814814815
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5700718919366732
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 23:34 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.185
Log loss0.562
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.00845858546424621,
  "shareRatio": 1.621270530745215,
  "totalAfter": 15369,
  "shareBefore": 0.005199698568198945,
  "totalBefore": 13270,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 130,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 69
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 57% that "robinhood" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.52% → 0.85% (+63%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "robinhood" (6H). momentum contributed +0.43 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash05d76cfbb66d78555ae7f9fb1a4a2437583c5e51af6cbe298709a6d9d452c331
Previous hashbaa7cc9791958f13e9ea168c5d6ed70d85a0a4f3d5948101b1b69b01ccbd52da