Ledger / Prediction #2601 · narrative · 1H

Will "walter" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 38% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

174 of 3061 launches in the last hour referenced "walter" (88 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 0.65×.

Made2026-10-12 21:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 22:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 20:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.5324426080170642,
      "momentum": -0.4377177184145607,
      "diversity": -0.293103448275862
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3779217891210116
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "walter",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.03678678678678678,
    "share60": 0.0569888961463096,
    "total15": 665,
    "total60": 3061,
    "momentum": 0.6455079721555366,
    "diversity": 0.5057471264367817,
    "launches15": 24,
    "launches60": 174,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 88
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 306,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9952069444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9952069444444445
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3779217891210116
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 22:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.143

Log loss0.475

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.004422999597909127,
  "shareRatio": 0.08161006642773565,
  "totalAfter": 2487,
  "shareBefore": 0.05649350649350649,
  "totalBefore": 3080,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 11,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 174
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 38% that "walter" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 5.65% → 0.44% (-92%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "walter" (1H). momentum contributed -0.44 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash45224b3f3d60d83ad1e50e7d620e323e961670aac235a871d8d81fbec091fd56

Previous hash45552f811f2c43bd7fa604dd955600460e4ed265ba183f5b05996039e7b263bb