Ledger / Prediction #2602 · narrative · 1H

Will "remember" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 28% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

163 of 3061 launches in the last hour referenced "remember" (63 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 0.49×.

Made2026-10-12 21:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 22:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 20:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.5226468432558993,
      "momentum": -0.7090782037305997,
      "diversity": -0.4361963190184049
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.2844227891656128
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "remember",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.026276276276276277,
    "share60": 0.053396472893533636,
    "total15": 665,
    "total60": 3061,
    "momentum": 0.49209760218934534,
    "diversity": 0.38650306748466257,
    "launches15": 17,
    "launches60": 163,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 63
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 306,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9952069444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9952069444444445
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.2844227891656128
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 22:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.081

Log loss0.335

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0036188178528347406,
  "shareRatio": 0.07195271246939439,
  "totalAfter": 2487,
  "shareBefore": 0.05292207792207792,
  "totalBefore": 3080,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 9,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 163
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 28% that "remember" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 5.29% → 0.36% (-93%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "remember" (1H). momentum contributed -0.71 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashe34ba3a9b218115b43a8c9cb8f8f418fdd215cd196c04e85c4ef8c14626dab9c

Previous hash45224b3f3d60d83ad1e50e7d620e323e961670aac235a871d8d81fbec091fd56