Ledger / Prediction #2606 · narrative · 6H

Will "remember" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 32% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

163 of 3061 launches in the last hour referenced "remember" (63 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 0.49×.

Made2026-10-12 21:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 03:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 20:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.5226468432558993,
      "momentum": -0.7090782037305997,
      "diversity": -0.4361963190184049
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.32391462693134115
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "remember",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.026276276276276277,
    "share60": 0.053396472893533636,
    "total15": 665,
    "total60": 3061,
    "momentum": 0.49209760218934534,
    "diversity": 0.38650306748466257,
    "launches15": 17,
    "launches60": 163,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 63
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 306,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9952069444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9992011574074074
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.32391462693134115
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 03:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.105

Log loss0.391

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.002393005062126093,
  "shareRatio": 0.24609311257077396,
  "totalAfter": 10865,
  "shareBefore": 0.00988107212590971,
  "totalBefore": 16901,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 26,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 167
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 32% that "remember" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.99% → 0.24% (-76%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "remember" (6H). momentum contributed -0.71 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash1a1ce99e992f44e9f89a99a04402bd2dc7023b9b24a04fd1979a1869053c4461

Previous hashdd7ef55c8b7709a31ac9cfe71f1abc6ebfb5046cefbea898b75a7c4775ec6f35