Ledger / Prediction #2608 · narrative · 6H

Will "war" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 42% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

13 of 3061 launches in the last hour referenced "war" (6 distinct creators, rank #86). Last 15m momentum 1.19×.

Made2026-10-12 21:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 03:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 20:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.14332671675411546,
      "momentum": 0.1756071887282243,
      "diversity": -0.3461538461538461
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4209063227077055
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "war",
    "rank60": 86,
    "share15": 0.005255255255255256,
    "share60": 0.004408883082952318,
    "total15": 665,
    "total60": 3061,
    "momentum": 1.1919697475253033,
    "diversity": 0.46153846153846156,
    "launches15": 3,
    "launches60": 13,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 6
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 306,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9952069444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9992011574074074
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4209063227077055
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 03:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.177

Log loss0.546

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0005522319374137137,
  "shareRatio": 0.518498067366096,
  "totalAfter": 10865,
  "shareBefore": 0.0011241938346843383,
  "totalBefore": 16901,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 6,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 19
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 42% that "war" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.11% → 0.06% (-51%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "war" (6H). diversity contributed -0.35 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash782453e022e1c770273758417229c01d28b7e2d713ef8792e4994c37d90a4aee

Previous hash76bcee56ae5e3ceb51ee27788e1150a88e7e2940d5282d6c91c047eec462f7ee