Ledger / Prediction #2611 · narrative · 24H

Will "wtf" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 42% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

152 of 3061 launches in the last hour referenced "wtf" (3 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 1.37×.

Made2026-10-12 21:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 21:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 20:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.5121663912618264,
      "momentum": 0.31608163558667834,
      "diversity": -0.8763157894736842
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.41969297586822774
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "wtf",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.06831831831831832,
    "share60": 0.04980404964075767,
    "total15": 665,
    "total60": 3061,
    "momentum": 1.371742234037316,
    "diversity": 0.019736842105263157,
    "launches15": 45,
    "launches60": 152,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 306,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9952069444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998002893518518
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.41969297586822774
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 21:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.176

Log loss0.544

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0022367677528724807,
  "shareRatio": 0.3596044086544508,
  "totalAfter": 42472,
  "shareBefore": 0.006242628817764041,
  "totalBefore": 49178,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 95,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 307
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 42% that "wtf" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.62% → 0.22% (-64%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "wtf" (24H). diversity contributed -0.88 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hasha63183d7b7f3ff067d040a18407b03409604b86caab94dc9d35f07da5567aea2

Previous hash24be0f961d9011043df5340607b350ce523298ab4fdec45ae35a5d1932f721e2