Ledger / Prediction #2620 · narrative · 1H

Will "open" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 28% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

17 of 2724 launches in the last hour referenced "open" (13 distinct creators, rank #52). Last 15m momentum 0.42×.

Made2026-10-12 21:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 22:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 21:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.18356631474331733,
      "momentum": -0.8618700672462943,
      "diversity": 0.01764705882352935
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.2767467331272688
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "open",
    "rank60": 52,
    "share15": 0.0027124773960217,
    "share60": 0.006422018348623854,
    "total15": 552,
    "total60": 2724,
    "momentum": 0.4223714802376647,
    "diversity": 0.7647058823529411,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 17,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 13
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 292,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9921144444444444,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9921144444444444
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.2767467331272688
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 22:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.077

Log loss0.324

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0048436811977102595,
  "shareRatio": 0.7927942655935614,
  "totalAfter": 2271,
  "shareBefore": 0.0062043795620437955,
  "totalBefore": 2740,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 11,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 17
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 28% that "open" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.62% → 0.48% (-22%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "open" (1H). momentum contributed -0.86 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash1f5b012d2219352ceae70de3c79a8f060102d77f35634540051b5286b275e7c3

Previous hash931e2ece0a7326de265f1c370352a8e39c75fde6182d442617eaf0dbff39ae47