Ledger / Prediction #2621 · narrative · 6H

Will "uxento" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 24% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

174 of 2724 launches in the last hour referenced "uxento" (18 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 0.38×.

Made2026-10-12 21:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 03:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 21:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.5324426080170642,
      "momentum": -0.9643693506230886,
      "diversity": -0.7758620689655172
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.24132074322260036
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "uxento",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.024412296564195298,
    "share60": 0.06403669724770643,
    "total15": 552,
    "total60": 2724,
    "momentum": 0.3812235423348549,
    "diversity": 0.10344827586206896,
    "launches15": 13,
    "launches60": 174,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 18
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 292,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9921144444444444,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9986857407407408
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.24132074322260036
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 03:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.576

Log loss1.422

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.027106435408965974,
  "shareRatio": 1.1763927990226142,
  "totalAfter": 10551,
  "shareBefore": 0.02305204351661276,
  "totalBefore": 17005,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 286,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 392
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 24% that "uxento" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 2.31% → 2.71% (+18%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "uxento" (6H). momentum contributed -0.96 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.

— Overconfident: 76% and wrong on "uxento". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash6606253b3929d6f270c3d21add58236260aa1b21bc59c9db764232b1be5e42cb

Previous hash1f5b012d2219352ceae70de3c79a8f060102d77f35634540051b5286b275e7c3