Ledger / Prediction #2638 · narrative · 6H

Will "cognita" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 41% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

118 of 2474 launches in the last hour referenced "cognita" (42 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.90×.

Made2026-10-12 22:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 04:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 21:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4741870068047347,
      "momentum": -0.10788052885030978,
      "diversity": -0.4728813559322034
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4074293858297244
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cognita",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.04298245614035088,
    "share60": 0.04787878787878788,
    "total15": 569,
    "total60": 2474,
    "momentum": 0.8977348434377082,
    "diversity": 0.3559322033898305,
    "launches15": 24,
    "launches60": 118,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 42
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 275,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9974336111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9995722685185185
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4074293858297244
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 04:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.166

Log loss0.523

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0006974195476736076,
  "shareRatio": 0.10542218052413488,
  "totalAfter": 10037,
  "shareBefore": 0.007057838387463365,
  "totalBefore": 16719,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 7,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 118
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 41% that "cognita" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.71% → 0.07% (-90%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "cognita" (6H). diversity contributed -0.47 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash4753a09754fd4f0b54bde84433777f3bd36af82c6e4c3b052a45462195b5e343

Previous hash4e2187c9cabb3915012de4fbffd602024954cc85efcfc82a1be5ac362aeabab6