Ledger / Prediction #2639 · narrative · 6H

Will "cade" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 8% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

64 of 2474 launches in the last hour referenced "cade" (41 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 0.03×.

Made2026-10-12 22:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 04:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 21:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3824167756388357,
      "momentum": -3.3914530901874773,
      "diversity": -0.13125
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.07598443358693896
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cade",
    "rank60": 7,
    "share15": 0.0008771929824561404,
    "share60": 0.026060606060606062,
    "total15": 569,
    "total60": 2474,
    "momentum": 0.033659730722154224,
    "diversity": 0.640625,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 64,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 41
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 275,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9974336111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9995722685185185
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.07598443358693896
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 04:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.006

Log loss0.079

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00029889409186011756,
  "shareRatio": 0.09038521834084741,
  "totalAfter": 10037,
  "shareBefore": 0.0038279801423530117,
  "totalBefore": 16719,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 3,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 64
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 8% that "cade" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.38% → 0.03% (-92%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "cade" (6H). momentum contributed -3.39 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash9562b6671fcb164171f1a2b687e45ad06c34c97e9b04f99315227b7a8d558932

Previous hash4753a09754fd4f0b54bde84433777f3bd36af82c6e4c3b052a45462195b5e343