Ledger / Prediction #2645 · token · 1H

Will $spider still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 2% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 15m ago. No social links. No hot term. Creator launched 23 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-12 22:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 23:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 21:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.02310254327777607
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "A51p5DVG3SCgWrCYTKBGcCbi3jQPyQWCtXXwQG95pump",
    "name": "spider",
    "symbol": "spider",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 15,
    "hasTwitter": false,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 0,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 1395.3434198252191,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 23
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 789,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.02310254327777607
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 23:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.001

Log loss0.023

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-12T21:46:51.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 513.8456913622164,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 3014.981064735375,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 1395.3434198252191,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 5000
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 2% that $spider would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $514, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $spider (1H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashaa28877c2a08455be24d083d7eff74a6f7f4cb8c87b8b1a11798b4b69cd48d6a

Previous hash5340346b6c6fa9b44c0db9b1d97968ebcef0b0c7c985d6e12ef315856bd26897