Ledger / Prediction #2649 · narrative · 1H

Will "uxento" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 42% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

84 of 2261 launches in the last hour referenced "uxento" (17 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 1.22×.

Made2026-10-12 22:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 23:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 22:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.423206832961382,
      "momentum": 0.19992814535475423,
      "diversity": -0.6571428571428571
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4172657652490696
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "uxento",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.04562383612662942,
    "share60": 0.03735632183908046,
    "total15": 536,
    "total60": 2261,
    "momentum": 1.2213149978513107,
    "diversity": 0.20238095238095238,
    "launches15": 24,
    "launches60": 84,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 17
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 250,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9946475,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9946475
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4172657652490696
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 23:34 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.174

Log loss0.540

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.015114578254509995,
  "shareRatio": 0.4127478459462265,
  "totalAfter": 2051,
  "shareBefore": 0.036988110964332896,
  "totalBefore": 2271,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 31,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 84
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 42% that "uxento" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.70% → 1.51% (-59%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "uxento" (1H). diversity contributed -0.66 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashe472295f4a387a3b5f38e61f91a8ac24c9efb0ffc78038287ad52c9c10e13164

Previous hashd7312cb004ad65706d0b3c7f0e766ace82a3d2b8702443e5b5c8f963c6bb49c4