Ledger / Prediction #2650 · narrative · 1H

Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 45% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

56 of 2261 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (26 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 1.08×.

Made2026-10-12 22:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 23:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 22:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3623870667451573,
      "momentum": 0.07791457344133443,
      "diversity": -0.3428571428571428
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4495335543119934
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "inu",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.027001862197392923,
    "share60": 0.02497789566755084,
    "total15": 536,
    "total60": 2261,
    "momentum": 1.081030306026598,
    "diversity": 0.4642857142857143,
    "launches15": 14,
    "launches60": 56,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 26
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 250,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9946475,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9946475
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4495335543119934
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 23:34 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.202

Log loss0.597

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.020477815699658702,
  "shareRatio": 0.8328589418482292,
  "totalAfter": 2051,
  "shareBefore": 0.024658740642888595,
  "totalBefore": 2271,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 42,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 56
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 45% that "inu" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.47% → 2.05% (-17%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "inu" (1H). diversity contributed -0.34 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash666e843213310109dc01206e8dc53ab9d76fbc5046c70105f0de7b78b6368617

Previous hashe472295f4a387a3b5f38e61f91a8ac24c9efb0ffc78038287ad52c9c10e13164