Ledger / Prediction #2651 · narrative · 1H

Will "dory" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

46 of 2261 launches in the last hour referenced "dory" (30 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 0.05×.

Made2026-10-12 22:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 23:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 22:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3328805226082492,
      "momentum": -3.094592930986055,
      "diversity": -0.11739130434782608
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.05
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "dory",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.000931098696461825,
    "share60": 0.020557029177718834,
    "total15": 536,
    "total60": 2261,
    "momentum": 0.04529344626659458,
    "diversity": 0.6521739130434783,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 46,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 30
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 250,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9946475,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9946475
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.05
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 23:34 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.003

Log loss0.051

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.0119055104906831,
  "totalAfter": 2051,
  "shareBefore": 0.02025539409951563,
  "totalBefore": 2271,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 46
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 5% that "dory" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.03% → 0.00% (-100%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "dory" (1H). momentum contributed -3.09 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash6c6e6450976ff1ff3a6022af9fc475c3617a7552cb9b677c50c193fd2fda40de

Previous hash666e843213310109dc01206e8dc53ab9d76fbc5046c70105f0de7b78b6368617