Ledger / Prediction #2654 · narrative · 6H

Will "quantum" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 48% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

42 of 2261 launches in the last hour referenced "quantum" (23 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 1.24×.

Made2026-10-12 22:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 04:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 22:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3192347558773902,
      "momentum": 0.21423113054508536,
      "diversity": -0.24285714285714277
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.47587527717422234
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "quantum",
    "rank60": 8,
    "share15": 0.023277467411545624,
    "share60": 0.01878868258178603,
    "total15": 536,
    "total60": 2261,
    "momentum": 1.238908971409793,
    "diversity": 0.5476190476190477,
    "launches15": 12,
    "launches60": 42,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 23
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 250,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9946475,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9991079166666667
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.47587527717422234
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 04:34 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.226

Log loss0.646

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.004261954261954262,
  "shareRatio": 0.6209905642179204,
  "totalAfter": 9620,
  "shareBefore": 0.006916216708123521,
  "totalBefore": 16483,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 41,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 114
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 48% that "quantum" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.69% → 0.43% (-38%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "quantum" (6H). diversity contributed -0.24 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashe3be468799b7335e4b44173d6fcabcfba7de8e9647c66af4ee490dc62c2caabf

Previous hashadc9ece370c1b69dff73afdb012d6157aee8ca1e930d96b89b03dc4bbc7a4318