Ledger / Prediction #2655 · narrative · 6H
Will "read" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 15% → FADES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
38 of 2261 launches in the last hour referenced "read" (10 distinct creators, rank #9). Last 15m momentum 0.16×.
Made2026-10-12 22:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 04:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 22:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3042222370938428,
"momentum": -1.807186571018373,
"diversity": -0.5842105263157895
},
"rawProbability": 0.14666233738779919
},
"features": {
"term": "read",
"rank60": 9,
"share15": 0.002793296089385475,
"share60": 0.017020335985853226,
"total15": 536,
"total60": 2261,
"momentum": 0.16411521439454402,
"diversity": 0.2631578947368421,
"launches15": 1,
"launches60": 38,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 10
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 250,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9946475,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9991079166666667
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.14666233738779919
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-13 04:34 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.728
Log loss1.919
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.007380457380457381,
"shareRatio": 1.069899405821236,
"totalAfter": 9620,
"shareBefore": 0.006916216708123521,
"totalBefore": 16483,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 71,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 114
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 15% that "read" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.69% → 0.74% (+7%). PARTIAL.
— "read" stayed roughly flat over 6H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
12d5d87249d1d6823b072ae8ec80987f228064599be78f91bc9c5c6819161099Previous hash
e3be468799b7335e4b44173d6fcabcfba7de8e9647c66af4ee490dc62c2caabf