Will "dumb" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 21% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

31 of 2261 launches in the last hour referenced "dumb" (4 distinct creators, rank #12). Last 15m momentum 0.20×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.27368239380765685,
      "momentum": -1.606515875556222,
      "diversity": -0.7451612903225806
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.20767498641130425
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "dumb",
    "rank60": 12,
    "share15": 0.002793296089385475,
    "share60": 0.013925729442970823,
    "total15": 536,
    "total60": 2261,
    "momentum": 0.200585262037776,
    "diversity": 0.12903225806451613,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 31,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 250,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9946475,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997769791666666
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.20767498641130425
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00009318361831989936,
  "shareRatio": 0.10245438549026474,
  "totalAfter": 42926,
  "shareBefore": 0.001013068584743187,
  "totalBefore": 49355,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 4,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 50
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity