Ledger / Prediction #2667 · narrative · 1H

Will "laptop" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 35% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

52 of 2187 launches in the last hour referenced "laptop" (3 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 1.18×.

Made2026-10-12 23:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 00:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 22:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.351270870922099,
      "momentum": 0.1657540183313147,
      "diversity": -0.8307692307692307
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3512055368746638
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "laptop",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.0283203125,
    "share60": 0.023994515539305303,
    "total15": 511,
    "total60": 2187,
    "momentum": 1.180282738095238,
    "diversity": 0.057692307692307696,
    "launches15": 14,
    "launches60": 52,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 229,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9918633333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9918633333333333
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3512055368746638
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 00:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.123

Log loss0.433

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.004889975550122249,
  "shareRatio": 0.21798295371905638,
  "totalAfter": 1636,
  "shareBefore": 0.023604176123467997,
  "totalBefore": 2203,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 8,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 52
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 35% that "laptop" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.36% → 0.49% (-79%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "laptop" (1H). diversity contributed -0.83 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash40052484fac559e20a02b06f90f8a0ca7241c7bfe0a81608021970179911a351

Previous hash94277dd8769725bfe95c80c12d90e7c7cb5bee93c07501ab9ddcd706f25f96aa