Ledger / Prediction #2668 · narrative · 1H

Will "home" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 54% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

8 of 2187 launches in the last hour referenced "home" (7 distinct creators, rank #142). Last 15m momentum 1.26×.

Made2026-10-12 23:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 00:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 22:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.07050054438686033,
      "momentum": 0.2286431068802483,
      "diversity": 0.15
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5372169510884937
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "home",
    "rank60": 142,
    "share15": 0.0048828125,
    "share60": 0.0038848263254113347,
    "total15": 511,
    "total60": 2187,
    "momentum": 1.2568933823529411,
    "diversity": 0.875,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 8,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 7
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 229,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9918633333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9918633333333333
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5372169510884937
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 00:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.289

Log loss0.770

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0024449877750611247,
  "shareRatio": 0.7127816306730389,
  "totalAfter": 1636,
  "shareBefore": 0.003631411711302769,
  "totalBefore": 2203,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 4,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 8
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 54% that "home" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.36% → 0.24% (-33%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "home" (1H). momentum contributed +0.23 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash078c14f64dd0ee933288bb2ac51ba48d124cf63c5dce851458e284232757ee11

Previous hash40052484fac559e20a02b06f90f8a0ca7241c7bfe0a81608021970179911a351