Ledger / Prediction #2677 · token · 1H

Will $POG still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 2% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 20m ago. No social links. No hot term. Creator launched 4 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-12 23:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 00:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 22:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.02310254327777607
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "AtsQCs7XsNTRiBSacuSS2gH8GFcJ3ZDCfFBQXhVNpump",
    "name": "POG",
    "symbol": "POG",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 20,
    "hasTwitter": false,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 0,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 580.1149794439594,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 4
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 768,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.02310254327777607
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 00:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.001

Log loss0.023

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-12T23:42:58.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 13.283396861191948,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 3616.050226049631,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 580.1149794439594,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 5000
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 2% that $POG would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $13, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $POG (1H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash67e619e5493409698029c6dc8bb812e68a03621e6f75c67ce17a366ae31de642

Previous hashb605e2e3ca138c9130a6bc537f30026672c9b43697aee0bdf73237324c5a5def