Will "literally" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 30% → FADES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
5 of 2045 launches in the last hour referenced "literally" (5 distinct creators, rank #264). Last 15m momentum 0.42×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0,
"momentum": -0.8700778887190237,
"diversity": 0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.2952380952380952
},
"features": {
"term": "literally",
"rank60": 264,
"share15": 0.0011261261261261261,
"share60": 0.002688172043010753,
"total15": 443,
"total60": 2045,
"momentum": 0.41891891891891886,
"diversity": 1,
"launches15": 0,
"launches60": 5,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 5
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 247,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9976927777777778,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9976927777777778
}{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.2952380952380952
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0,
"shareRatio": 0.1283864105612213,
"totalAfter": 1452,
"shareBefore": 0.0024378352023403218,
"totalBefore": 2051,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 0,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 5
}Predicted 30% that "literally" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.24% → 0.00% (-100%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "literally" (1H). momentum contributed -0.87 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
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